The Israel-Hamas war poses a significant challenge for the Biden Administration as it seeks to balance traditional support for Israel with maintaining relations in the Muslim world. This conflict’s repercussions extend beyond the Middle East, directly influencing the US presidential elections.
The Quicksand
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a major attack on southern Israel, resulting in 1,143 Israeli deaths and prompting an Israeli invasion of Gaza. The US quickly supported Israel, condemning Hamas and opposing a UN ceasefire resolution. Additionally, the US deployed the Carrier Strike Group 12 and provided military aid to Israel, bypassing Congress through an emergency determination. The details of these transfers remain obscure.
Israel’s military response has led to the deaths of thousands of Palestinians and significant destruction in Gaza. The disproportionate civilian casualties have sparked international backlash, particularly from the Global South, which criticized Israel’s actions and ongoing occupation of Palestinian territories. This situation has isolated President Biden and damaged US credibility, as accusations of a “double standard policy” have emerged, drawing comparisons to Russian actions in Ukraine.
The Blowback
Domestically, the conflict has led to widespread protests in the US, particularly in large metro areas, involving violent clashes between pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli demonstrators. This unrest could influence the next presidential election, particularly in swing states like Michigan, which has a significant Arab and Muslim population.
Arab Americans and Muslims, who historically support Democrats, have criticized Biden’s handling of the Gaza crisis. Their dissatisfaction was evident in the high number of uncommitted votes during the Democratic primaries in Michigan.
The Possible Balance Tip
The 2024 presidential election is expected to be highly competitive. Former President Donald Trump remains unpopular due to his role in the 2021 Capitol Hill incident, while Biden faces criticism for his age, economic management, and international crisis handling. Arab and Muslim voters in Michigan could play a crucial role in the election outcome, but several factors will influence their impact:
- Alternative Choices: Despite their dissatisfaction with Biden, some Arab and Muslim voters may be reluctant to support Trump due to his policies, potentially opting for third-party candidates or abstaining from voting.
- Demographic Balancing: Biden could offset losses among Arab and Muslim voters by gaining support from other demographic groups.
- Policy Shifts: The Biden Administration’s evolving stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict, including calls for a ceasefire and support for a two-state solution, could sway Arab and Muslim voter sentiment. Efforts to secure a bilateral security agreement with Saudi Arabia, excluding Israel, could further influence perceptions.
In conclusion, while the Arab and Muslim community in Michigan holds significant sway in a pivotal swing state, their ultimate impact on the 2024 election will depend on various external factors, including voter turnout, alternative candidate support, and Biden’s policy effectiveness in resolving the Gaza conflict.
