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The Potential Deciders in a US-China War Over Taiwan

General Douglas MacArthur once referred to Taiwan as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier.” Positioned 180km from China’s coast, Taiwan’s strategic location is crucial for both China and the US.

For Beijing, Taiwan is seen as part of its territory, a region it aims to reunify with the mainland, thereby pushing US military influence further away from eastern Asia. Following the election of pro-independence Lai Ching-te as Taiwan’s next president in January, China has ramped up coercive measures, such as intrusions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ).

As Lai’s inauguration on May 20 approaches, Beijing has intensified military activities, including frequent flights near Taiwan and naval operations close to Taiwanese waters. If China gains control over Taiwan, it would breach the first island chain, a series of US-friendly islands forming a natural barrier against Chinese expansion.

The second island chain, spanning from Japan to Guam and Micronesia, serves as an additional buffer. Decades of military investment have brought China close to being able to wage a war over Taiwan. In response, the US is developing new military strategies and reinforcing alliances.

The Financial Times highlights five key military contests that could shape the war’s outcome. While conflict is not seen as imminent, any clash between the US and China would have significant global repercussions, marking the most severe international crisis since World War II.

Missiles as the Mainstay

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has focused on missile development to bridge the gap with US military capabilities. “It’s all about missiles,” says Eric Heginbotham, an MIT security expert. The PLA’s Rocket Force boasts large arsenals of ballistic missiles capable of threatening US aircraft carriers and denying regional air and sea dominance.

US bases in Japan, South Korea, and Guam are also vulnerable to China’s long-range missiles. The US could deploy precision-strike missiles to Japan or the Philippines to counter Chinese targets. However, access to bases in the Philippines requires governmental approval.

The US Army’s Dark Eagle hypersonic weapon, with a 3,000km range, will soon be deployed to Guam, capable of hitting Chinese positions. Taiwan has also enhanced its missile capabilities, aiming to produce 1,000 missiles in 2024. Japan is similarly expanding its arsenal, with plans to receive Tomahawk missiles by 2025.

China’s missile strategy aims to challenge US air and naval dominance. In previous conflicts, the US’s ability to build up forces near adversaries with minimal risk was a decisive factor. However, this approach would be ineffective against China’s missile capabilities.

One of China’s advanced missiles, the Dongfeng-17, can maneuver at hypersonic speeds, making it difficult for missile defense systems to detect. Another significant missile, the Dongfeng-26, known as the “Guam Express,” can target US territories in the Pacific.

War games conducted by Heginbotham for the Center for Strategic and International Studies indicate that while a PLA invasion of Taiwan might fail, the US would incur significant losses, including up to 372 aircraft. A US counter-attack strategy could involve depleting China’s missile arsenal before launching a swift offensive with stealth bombers.

Strategic Geographical Use

To counter China’s missile threat, the US is altering its use of geography. Strengthening missile defenses in Guam and dispersing forces with allies makes them harder to track. The US Air Force plans to relocate aircraft to small, austere airfields in Japan temporarily. The Navy and Marine Corps are adopting similar strategies, enhancing mobility and reducing detectability.

China’s naval vessels, passing through narrow straits like the Miyako Strait or Bashi Channel, would be vulnerable to missile attacks from the first island chain. US-Philippine joint exercises have simulated island retake scenarios, practicing with coastal defense missiles.

China has reacted strongly to the increased US presence in the Philippines, especially with the deployment of systems like the Typhon in northern Luzon. The INF treaty’s collapse has enabled the US to develop and deploy ground-launched missiles in the region.

The stealth capabilities of the US submarine force provide a significant advantage. However, China is closing this technological gap with investments in anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and advanced sonar systems. The US is working with allies through pacts like Aukus to bolster submarine capabilities, anticipating significant implications for Taiwan scenarios.

Space and Cyber Warfare

Space-based capabilities are crucial for modern warfare. China has expanded its satellite network for communications and ISR operations. The US no longer holds a monopoly on space-based ISR, with China rapidly catching up.

China is also advancing in cyber and electronic warfare, capable of targeting US satellites and disrupting communications. The US must ensure resilience in its space operations, as China prioritizes disrupting American information systems.

Nuclear Concerns

The role of nuclear weapons in a US-China conflict over Taiwan is a major concern. China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and triad capabilities pose critical questions about deterrence and potential use in conflict. The US must consider the implications of China’s growing nuclear capabilities on its strategies and risk assessments.

The possibility of limited nuclear strikes or threats to coerce allies highlights the need for careful strategic planning. The US faces significant challenges in maintaining a conventional military edge without resorting to nuclear options.

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